ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?
Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls children of all ages, The NCAA and the NFL are proud to present to you the 2010 Football Season. It is finally here. I realize football does not kick off in a meaningful game for another 5 weeks, but think about everything you need to know between now and then...who is winning all of the conferences this coming college season, will there be any BCS Busters, what about the Heisman Trophy - who should we expect to see in New York? That is just on the college side, the NFL has their own unique set of questions...Are the Jets ready to unseat the Pats, can the Saints repeat, how does Philly's gamble pay off, and I almost forgot about that quiet duo in Cincinnati? There is so much to cover, that I have to go ahead now and throw us into football mode at the end of July to try to cover it all.
On Wednesday, I promised you that I would give you 10 games that will impact the National Championship picture in College Football, I could not do it. There are so many meaningful games because one loss could ruin your season. So here is my list narrowed down the best I could do...
September 6---Boise state at Virginia Tech
October 2---Texas at Oklahoma
---Florida at Alabama
October 9---FSU at Miami
October 16---BYU at TCU
---Texas at Nebraska
October 30---Florida v UGA
November 6---Alabama at LSU
November 13---Penn State at Ohio State
November 20---Va Tech at Miami
---Ohio State at Iowa
November 27---Florida at FSU
This is really hard. I want to go ahead and start breaking these games down. There are so many story lines for each of these games that I could devote an entire blog to each of the games. Let me tell you how these games got deemed as important games. It starts with National importance. You will notice that USC is not on this list at all. That is easy, they can not play for the National Championship and they are the only Pac 10 team who has any shot at going undefeated, therefore, the Pac 10 does not appear on this list. With that being said, I think at least 1 team from each of the games listed could be in the National Championship picture at the time of the game. I think there are some teams who will not not necessarily be eliminated from the National Title picture with one loss. For instance, if Florida loses at Alabama on October 2, but then beats them in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta, I could still see them making the BCS Title Game. So I had to consider those factors. Some of these teams (Boise State, BYU, TCU, Big 10 or ACC schools) one loss will guarantee they will not be playing for a National Title. UGA makes the list not because they will contend for National Title, but they are going to be good enough to shock some people and could potentially beat Florida (no that is not a prediction). I do think you should pay close attention to a couple of former powers from the ACC who ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK---FSU & Miami. Does that mean I think FSU will win the BCS Title Game by 4 touchdowns---NO! I truly believe that the Seminoles may have the best qb in the country with Christian Ponder and this game still depends a lot on qb play, and let's not forget the addition of the defensive genius that is Mark Stoops.
NOW with all of that being said, let me give you THE BEST WEEKEND OF THE YEAR!!! I don't know what you had planned, but for the weekend of September 9 - 13, your plams just changed. Go ahead and take a few personal days at work, because there will be that much action over those 5 days. It will get started on Thursday with the kickoff of the regular NFL season. The Minnesota Vikings are traveling back to the place where their season so painfully ended last season to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints. If you like college, you will get Auburn visiting Mississippi State. On Saturday September 11th, COLLEGE FOOTBALL WILL GIVE US THE BEST SPORTING DAY OF THE YEAR!!! There are at least 3 games that have National Championship implications, and several other games that will impact conference battles. Here is the slate for that day of college football action...
South Florida at Florida---should be good early test for John Brantley
Georgia Tech at Kansas
Georgia at South Carolina---always a close matchup, UGA will be good and Spurrier finally has a solid qb in Stephen Garcia.
Florida State at Oklahoma---Stoops v. Stoops as Mark goes home to face his brother Bob. Will be a MAJOR TEST for the Oklahoma O-Line who really struggled last year. Could be a showcase game for Heisman Hopeful Christian Ponder.
Michigan at Notre Dame---it's always special when these two gets together.
Miami at Ohio State---this is Ohio State's most dangerous threat to an undefeated season and a possible spot in the BCS Title Game. This will be Terrell Pryor's opportunity to make his Heisman case.
Penn State at Alabama---two storied programs with tradition. This game will be watching just for the classic look of both uniforms.
Oregon at Tennessee--two teams who have been in the news all off season for all of the wrong reasons.
Virginia at USC
That is 9 good matchups. The games all have some form of an interesting story line. This is as good of a Saturday as I have seen in several years. Like I said, do not miss this day, it is time to call in every favor you have for this day. I hope I have at least got you thinking about football. Tell me about what you are looking forward to. Give me your lists of players, teams to watch. I am curious to what you are thinking or looking forward to for your team or conference.
UNTIL NEXT TIME..
Barring SEVERAL National Champion contenders dropping 1+ games, you will not see Boise State, BYU, or TCU in the National Championship, even after going undefeated. With the exception of Ohio State, an undefeated Big 10 team won't make it because of a lack of schedule strength (Even though Penn State plays Alabama, the rest of their schedule is not nearly good enough to get in. I believe the difference in Ohio State getting in is based off the Coaches Poll). ACC will ONLY get in if Miami or FSU goes undefeated.
ReplyDeleteUGA/FLA game is important, not because it will necessarily affect the National Championship, but because the winner will likely also clench the SEC East with the win. Winning this game and the SEC Championship, could put either team in the National Championship, even with a loss, however the SEC Championship will be a much harder contest for either school than the game in Jacksonville.
To Be Continued...
Dr. Phillips, I agree with the fact that seeing in of the non BCS schools in the title game is a long shot. However, Boises State starts off high enough this year that I do think they have a shot. I do think there is a good chance that most of the teams could end up with one loss. I think both Florida and Alabama could lose at least 1, Big 12 could lose 1 or 2, ACC you have to plan on losing a few games, Although I think this is the year they may get over that hurdle. Ohio State could really make the jump, Pryor looked solid at the end of last year. it will be interesting to see what happens if the SEC champion has a loss and VA Tech, Miami, or FSU are undefeated because they all will be impressive with strength of schedule because I think IF THEY DO FINISH UNBEATEN, they will have beaten the Big 10 Champ (Miami beating Ohio State) and the Big 12 champ (FSU beating Oklahoma). I can't wait to realy get close enough to start breaking these games down.
ReplyDeleteVery good points, Your Honor.
ReplyDeleteBoise State has been pushing for their owed respect for years! As everyone knows, their eminent downfall has been their amazingly low strength of schedule in the WAC. Once again, outside of Virginia Tech (some would also argue OK State), their schedule is nothing short of RIDICULOUS! Though I see a win over Va Tech as a good win, it will not mean nearly as much in Week 1 as it would in Week 12 or 13 (the same argument works for OK St in BS's 3rd game of the season). That is why, barring some big National Champion contenders dropping a game, Boise State will be snubbed again.
I agree that Fla & Bama could drop 1 and still get a bid to the Nat Championship, as could several Big 12 schools. However, for them to be able to do that, it will require several other teams to fall as well. If Texas, Oklahoma, or Nebraska, and Ohio State, Miami, FSU, and Va Tech go undefeated, neither Fla or Bama will get in with a loss, even after winning the SEC Championship. With the right teams losing the right games, you could make a case for 2 dozen teams getting in. Those games actually happening the way they need to will likely be another story...
I guess to sum this mess up, I agree with you. It's still a little early to break down every game of the season. The one thing that we can count on is that it will be an exciting year.
Wow, somebody brought their 'A' Game. Boise State has been pushing for respect. For years, I was the biggest they do not play anyone and they can not hold up to the big boys, HOWEVER, over the past several years, they have proven they can hold their own. Many would argue that the only reason the strength of schedule is so bad is because everyone fears the Broncos. They have an open invitation to play anyone-wnywhere-anytime. Nebraska refused to even acknowledge the request when contacted. I would normally say it takes a lot of people loseing for them to make it, however unlike in years past, they are starting ranked high and everyone else is playing catch up. If I have learned anything over the years, it's that the voters are not big on dropping teams who keep winning, that is great for Boise State. They are a legit contender this year to break the ceiling and play for the title, (without a lot happening I Think).
ReplyDeleteI do think you are wrong about the Big 12 being able to deal with a loss and still getting in. Unless there are 2 1 loss teams playing, I do not think they will be able to jump any undefeated team. The Big 12 lost a lot as a conference in terms of players to the NFL.
As fir the SEC schools, I think a 1 loss Florida or Alabama,(depending on when the loss occurs and how it occurs), will play in the National Championship game. There will not be that many undefeated teams...FSU v Oklahoma eliminates one of them, Florida v. Alabama eliminates one of them, Texas v. Oklahoma eliminates one of them, FSU v. Miami eliminates one of them, Va Tech v. Miami eliminates one of them, Ohio St v. Miami eliminates one of them. My point is there will not be a ton of undefeated teams, we very well may be looking at Undefeated Boise State and a bunch of one loss teams, what do you do then?
Looking forward to your thoughts, Dr.
It was never my argument that a Big 12 team would get an automatic pass into the Nat Champ with a loss. I see Texas, Oklahoma, or Nebraska getting in with an undefeated season, no question, however, for them to get in with a loss, they must first clinch the Big 12, and secondly, no more than 1 of Florida, Alabama, Va Tech, Miami, and FSU can be undefeated. My argument was referring to Boise State, saying that in order for them to get in, it would require no more than 1 team I have listed to be undefeated when January rolls around. If 2 teams are undefeated, I believe Boise State will once again be left out, forced to face BYU or TCU if one happens to be undefeated, in the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl, depending on whether it is the ACC or SEC Champion who goes to Arizona.
ReplyDeleteI do agree with you on your point that this year's schedule doesn't allow the opportunity for many teams to be undefeated. In that regards, I believe that this is Boise State's best chance to make their way into the Nat Champ. But as I have stated, if 2 other BCS schools are undefeated, we will once again be discussing the BCS vs Playoff System argument in January.
I do disagree with you on 1 point, though. Regardless of where they are before (Conference) Championship Week, Boise State CAN be left out of the Nat Championship. Let me remind you of 2006, where week 7's BCS Rankings (the last BCS rankings before the Nat Championship) had #1 Ohio State, #2 USC, #3 Michigan. USC dropped their last game to UCLA. Michigan did not play another game. But instead of Michigan moving up to #2, they get snubbed as Florida jumps from #4 to #2, to eventually become the 2006 Nat Champs. (Before you jump me for this reference, no, I do not personally believe Michigan deserved to be there more than Fla, as was evident by Michigan's disasterous play in their 32-18 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl, and by the fact that Michigan's 1 loss before BCS bowl games, came from Ohio State two weeks prior to USC falling to UCLA. And yes, I understand that no one outside of the Big Ten wanted to see a Michigan/Ohio State rematch, so why would they waste the advertising money on a game that few people outside the Midwest would watch, and on a game that if Michigan won, questions as to who really deserves the title would have arisen) I am simply making the argument that since the WAC doesn't play a conference championship game (much like the Big Ten in 2006), anything can happen. But such is the beauty of the BCS.
It was never my argument that a Big 12 team would get an automatic pass into the Nat Champ with a loss. I see Texas, Oklahoma, or Nebraska getting in with an undefeated season, no question, however, for them to get in with a loss, they must first clinch the Big 12, and secondly, no more than 1 of Florida, Alabama, Va Tech, Miami, and FSU can be undefeated. My argument was referring to Boise State, saying that in order for them to get in, it would require no more than 1 team I have listed to be undefeated when January rolls around. If 2 teams are undefeated, I believe Boise State will once again be left out, forced to face BYU or TCU if one happens to be undefeated, in the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl, depending on whether it is the ACC or SEC Champion who goes to Arizona.
ReplyDeleteI do agree with you on your point that this year's schedule doesn't allow the opportunity for many teams to be undefeated. In that regards, I believe that this is Boise State's best chance to make their way into the Nat Champ. But as I have stated, if 2 other BCS schools are undefeated, we will once again be discussing the BCS vs Playoff System argument in January.
I do disagree with you on 1 point, though. Regardless of where they are before (Conference) Championship Week, Boise State CAN be left out of the Nat Championship. Let me remind you of 2006, where week 7's BCS Rankings (the last BCS rankings before the Nat Championship) had #1 Ohio State, #2 USC, #3 Michigan. USC dropped their last game to UCLA. Michigan did not play another game. But instead of Michigan moving up to #2, they get snubbed as Florida jumps from #4 to #2, to eventually become the 2006 Nat Champs. (Before you jump me for this reference, no, I do not personally believe Michigan deserved to be there more than Fla, as was evident by Michigan's disasterous play in their 32-18 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl, and by the fact that Michigan's 1 loss before BCS bowl games, came from Ohio State two weeks prior to USC falling to UCLA. And yes, I understand that no one outside of the Big Ten wanted to see a Michigan/Ohio State rematch, so why would they waste the advertising money on a game that few people outside the Midwest would watch, and on a game that if Michigan won, questions as to who really deserves the title would have arisen) I am simply making the argument that since the WAC doesn't play a conference championship game (much like the Big Ten in 2006), anything can happen. But such is the beauty of the BCS.
Ok, I think I just misunderstood what you were saying about the Big 12. I really am not sure if it is going to matter. I think there is a chance that Oklahoma could be undefeated (however, how funny would it be for an undefeated Oklahoma to play a 1 or 2 loss Nebraska team and lose in teh Big 12 Title Game---what a way to go, you win the conference and keep them out of the National Championship Game). I think Texas is too young to be a real threat this year. I do think you are probably right about Boise State, if there are 2 major conference school (other than Big East) who are undefeated they will probably get left out again. My question is what do you think happens if they are the only undefeated school? Will they play for the Title in that situation?
ReplyDeleteAs for the 2006 comment, THAT IS AN EXCELLENT POINT! I do not know what the Big Ten is thinking by having their schedule end so early. There are 2 full weeks of games left by the time their season wraps up. THIS IS CRAZY TO ME. As for giving you a hard time about the Michigan - Ohio State reference, I did say no to the rematch, but only because I was convinced Michigan WOULD WIN and this would be terrible for the BCS. I do think Michigan was a top 2 or 3 team this year and I put very little stock in the Rose Bowl. That was a game that Michigan did not want to be in. I know that sounds odd, but for all of these kids, they listened to everyone talk about the rematch and then saw what they thought was going to put them in the game, only to get sent to Pasadena, they were disappointed and came out flat on that day. I would have liked to have seen the Ohio State - Michigan game originally played on a neutral field because I believe Michigan would have on. They had so much talent on that team, if you look at the roster, they were loaded.
BTW...THERE IS NO COMPARISON BETWEEN THE PLAYOFFS AND THE BCS---BCS ID BEST THING EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You took the words out of my mouth! I am PRAYING for an Oklahoma v Nebraska Big 12 Championship. I haven't done the homework, but I can't think of a team that has won back-to-back Conference Championships from 2 different conferences. I'd LOVE to see Nebraska pull that off.
ReplyDeleteIf Boise State is undefeated and no one in the Big 12, ACC or Big 10 are undefeated, then yes, they get in. At that point, the other spot will be decided by the polls and quality wins. Though if this happens, and BS gets blown out by whoever they play, I think it will hurt the BCS. At that point, even I would rather see the top few battle it out. But as everyone discusses, when you are pulling from a potential 120+ schools (not that all are mathematically eligible), at what point do you draw the line? As much as I love football, the last thing I want to see is another 64-team tournament (Though at first, it would be hard to argue with an extra 6 weekends of college football).
I was actually 100% in favor of the rematch. Michigan was STACKED, but also, as I elluded to earlier, I grew up in the heart of Big Ten Country. I can't stand the fact that a loss late in the year is more meaningful as a loss early in the year. But I guess a loss in the last 3 games of the college football regular season would be the equivilant of losing in the Wild Card, Division, and Conference Championship in the NFL Playoffs. Huh...I guess college football sort of DOES have a playoff system...