Today is the day we have all been waiting for. In April everyone thought their team had just drafted the missing link to make their team a favorite for the Super Bowl. September comes along and it's time for kick off on another season filled with promise. It all led us to this day. The New Orleans Saints battling the Indianapolis Colts for the title of Super Bowl Champion. Before I go on record with my pick, let me tell you the strenght and weakness of each team.
Indianoplis Colts - they have not lost a game all year they tried to win. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the decision to rest the starters, it clearly did not hurt them this year and WILL NOT be the reason they WIN OR LOSE tonight in Miami. The key for the Colts is the same as it has been sine game one of the 1998 season, Peyton Manning must play well. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback of this generation of quarterbacks* and if he does not play well, this will be a painfully long day for Colts fans. The key to this game for Colts is Manning's ability to figure out what the Saints are doing with the blitz. Gregg Williams does a great job of showing blitz from one side or with a certain player and drop them back into coverage. If Manning is able to read the "truth" about who is coming, they will score and score often.
Defensively, I have spent the last week listening to ESPN guys tell us how we are missing the boat on this defense. "They are fast and underated" they keep saying. Yes, I realize they are fast, but let's be honest they are not as fast as the offensive weapons for the Saints. I realize that the Colts have only given up more than 17 points in 5 games this year, but the teams that have troubled them and been able to be in a position to beat them are teams with the abibility to spread them a\out and throw on them. I do believe the defense will be a liability in Miami and I also believe this is the defense that Manning and the rest of that offense should be worrying about.
New Orleans Saints - Offensively the Saints are just as good as the Colts, maybe even better. The number of weapons that Drew Brees has to play with is unfair. They spread you out with a 3 or 4 wideout set or they can go power I with Pierre Thomas. I really think where the Saints have a HUGE mismatch is with Reggie Bush. He is the type of game breaker that could easily change the outcome of this game. The biggest key for Sean Peyton and the Saints will be moving him around and creating mismatches in coverage. By moving Bush to the outside, you force the Colts to move a safety into coverage and that will leave the middle of the field wide open for deep play action passes. Brees sells the play action as well as anyone (obviously Peyton is still the best). The Saints must keep Brees upright, a job that does seem to be getting easier with the fact that Dwight Freeney seems like he will be less than 100%. If the Colts can't get pressure with their front 4 then Brees will pick apart that secondary and will have a huge day throwing the ball.
Defensively, it all comes down to pressuring Manning. If the Saints get pressure on Manning like they did Favre, they will win. Manning has been known to struggle against physical defenses who are not afraid to bring the house, which the Saints are known for. I know people say this team has to have turnovers to win, but the style of defense they play sets up turnovers from Manning, You pressure him and let him try to force a throw or two. Even without turnovers, if he keeps going down as has been suggested, that will lead to the Colts having to punt and a couple no point possessions or even field goals, may be as good as a turnover.
All of this being said, I do believe it will be a very entertaining ball game. I think both quarterbacks will play well. I think the key to this game will end of being who has more playmakers, and that is the Saints. They have Brees and those receivers, they have Bush and Thomas, and defensively they have Sharper, Vilma, Grant, and Smith. At the end of the day there are to many big time players on the Saints. I like the Saints to win 34 - 28.
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